Election Night Preview


Coming in to Tuesday’s election, the game is “rigged” against Trump, to use his own words. A look at major battleground states shows that Clinton is entering Tuesday with a head-start. Although Trump’s campaign has made significant progress with traditionally Democratic uneducated white male voters (the Reagan Democrats and the white rust-belt Obama Coalition voters), his problem is the loss of a large amount of educated Latino voters and suburban voters who may tend to vote Republican but are put off by Trump’s abrasive style. The map reflects this. Trump is losing ground in traditionally Republican states with large amounts of new Hispanic voters. Part of this does have to do with the fact that the party lines are changing with new demographic changes, and so Trump’s candidacy may have only sped up this change. However, Trump’s campaign has done little to reach out to voters outside of his base. So, in places like the Michigan peninsula and central Pennsylvania, Trump has put these traditionally Democratic states in play. His Achilles’s heel is that he has lost large numbers of voters in suburban areas around Pennsylvanian cities and in states moving more Democratic in demographics, like Texas and Arizona, which could potentially go blue next election cycle.


Clinton has the map in her favor, which may be worse. For anyone who has come into a game or meet seeded first, they understand the pressure of trying to stay on top. The other problem of being on top is playing defense. Clinton may already be winning by 98 electors with only 18 till 270. However, with wins Arizona, Ohio, Georgia, and Iowa, Trump gets up to 215.         Trump: IA, AZ, GA, OH Clinton: MI, NH


Giving Clinton Michigan and New Hampshire, however, closes the election. This is where Trump has a problem – he must win a lot of states and take away a lot of states from Clinton. His path to victory lies in taking away Michigan, Minnesota, or Pennsylvania. His only real shot there may be Michigan. If Trump wins Michigan, he has to then take Florida and North Carolina. If Utah is lost to McCullin however, the vote goes to the House, which is in Trump’s favor. This scenario would be a long shot, and if Clinton wins even just one of those states, she clinches the election.

In conclusion, this is how they win:

Trump –



Clinton –


*This is just one map with Clinton’s possible wins. Experiment with what states she could lose while still winning

Play around with the election map, but be sure to use accurate polling data and historical trends. Stay tuned tomorrow night to your news outlets and if you can, go vote!